The New York Times focuses on a different topic (Money Talks to Have Before Marriage), but includes an interesting discussion of statistical analysis and the risk of divorce.
Ron Lieber writes (excerpt):
The risk that any marriage will end in divorce is about 45 percent, according to David Popenoe, a professor of sociology emeritus at Rutgers University. The chances fall to about 40 percent for first marriages and decline further for college-educated couples, people from intact families and couples who share the same religion.